‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Constricts India's Cooking-Gas Availability.
The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.
Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."
City-Specific Fallout
In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers observe a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Official Position
Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.
India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Growing Panic
Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.
Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.
