War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".