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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd